Amazon Set to Gain Significantly More Than VCs from Anthropic’s IPO

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While venture capital firms will earn billions from Anthropic’s IPO, Amazon’s convertible note investments and preferred stock holdings position it to reap much larger financial rewards from the AI startup’s public listing.

Anthropic’s anticipated initial public offering (IPO) is expected to yield substantial returns for many of its investors, including prominent venture capital firms such as Menlo Ventures, Sequoia, Sound Ventures, and Spark Capital. However, analysis of Anthropic’s S-1 filing reveals that none of these venture investors hold a controlling share of 5% or more, which is unusual for a tech company IPO. The reason lies in Anthropic’s massive private valuation of $965 billion, rendering even small percentage stakes worth billions of dollars. For example, Menlo Ventures’ approximately $14 billion position amounts to around 1.5% ownership.

The principal financial beneficiary from Anthropic’s IPO appears to be Amazon, which has cultivated a strategic partnership with the AI company. Amazon initially committed up to $4 billion in 2023 and has since invested billions more, primarily through convertible notes—debt instruments that convert into equity upon IPO or sale. As of June 30, Amazon holds $6.2 billion in outstanding convertible notes, which constitute all of Anthropic’s debt. Due to Anthropic’s soaring valuation, these notes are valued at $97.9 billion on Amazon’s filings.

Anthropic’s accounting reflected this surge through a non-cash charge of $72.4 billion during the first half of 2026, recorded as a "change in fair value of convertible notes, derivative liabilities, and SAFEs." Amazon’s convertible notes could convert into up to 1.84 billion shares but are capped at 12% of Anthropic’s partially diluted shares, a limit Amazon may waive.

In addition to the notes, Amazon invested $10 billion in nonvoting preferred stock during the second quarter of 2026, splitting $5 billion each over the two most recent funding rounds. Coupled with approximately $8 billion invested in notes from 2023 to 2025, Amazon’s total injection into Anthropic sums to about $18 billion.

Furthermore, Amazon stands to benefit from Anthropic’s commitment to spend at least $110 billion on Amazon Web Services (AWS) over the next decade, providing a substantial ongoing revenue stream beyond stock gains.

Google also holds a meaningful position, previously owning about 14% of Anthropic per 2025 court filings and investing an additional $10 billion in April 2026. While its stake is estimated to have diluted to roughly 5.6%, Google has secured cloud service agreements totaling at least $114 billion through 2033.

Overall, while venture capital firms will realize considerable paydays from the IPO, the S-1 filing spotlights tech giants like Amazon as the largest financial winners. These companies’ early investments and cloud services agreements not only deliver lucrative returns but also underscore potential competitive complexities, as some cloud providers concurrently develop rival AI models that may not align with Anthropic’s interests.